Modelling the survivorship pattern of Nigeria Children in their first 10 years of life

Authors

  • Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe University of badan http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9184-8258
  • Joshua Odunayo Akinyemi Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Faculty of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan. Nigeria

Keywords:

Survivorship, Nigeria, children mortality, Kaplan Meier, Brass Indirect method, Prediction

Abstract

Introduction: Several studies have attributed some social demographic variables to differentials in children mortality rates but there is paucity of information on modelling of children survival pattern in Nigeria. In this study we modelled children survival in Nigeria and predicted their survival in their first ten years of life. 

Methods: We used the data from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey to carry out a retrospective analysis of children survival. We computed the probability of survival and mortality rates for the first five years and predicted survivals for 6th to 10th years of life using life table techniques and compared our estimates with Brass indirect techniques.

Results: The probability of a child surviving up to exact age 1 and 5 were 0.9212 (95% CI: 0.919-0.923) and 0.8583 (95% CI: 0.855-0.861) respectively. About 142 of every 1000 children would not make their tenth birthday in Nigeria. We found higher survivorship trend among female children than the males. The estimates of probabilities of survival from age 1 to 5 from the fitted curves agreed very closely with those obtained from Brass indirect techniques as the variability was less than 2%.

Conclusion: Child mortality is high in Nigeria with fewer children deaths among females and also within first ten years of life in South West than within 1st year of life in North West zone. Efforts must be concentrated in reversing the worrisome survival trend in Nigeria especially in the Northern parts of the country.

Author Biography

Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, University of badan

Lecturer

Epidemiology and Medical Statistics

University of Ibadan

References

United Nations. United Nations Millennium Development Goals [Internet]. UN MDG. 1990 [cited 2015 Apr 8]. Available from: http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration/ares552e.htm Retrieved 8 April 2015

Anne T, Elizabeth R. Health Mothers and Health Newborns: the Vital Link. Connecticut Avenue Washington; 2012.

Gourbin C. Infant health and mortality indicators: their accuracy for monitoring the socio-economic development in the Europe of 1994. Eur J Popul. 1995;11(1):63–84.

Rahman M. Factors Affecting on Child Survival in Bangladesh: Cox Proportional Hazards Model Analysis. Internet J Trop Med [Internet]. 2008;6(1). Available from: http://www.ispub.com/IJTM/6/1/5001

CIA. The CIA world fact book 2005-2007, U.S. Department of state. Area handbook of the US Library of Congress. Washington; 2007.

Bercher H, Muller O, Jahn A, Gbangou A, Kynast-Wolf G, Kouyate B. Risk factor of infant mortality in sub-saharan Africa. New York; 2011.

NIPORT. An Ethnographic Research on Newborn Care Practices in Rural Bangladesh. Azimpur Dhaka, Bangladesh; 2002.

UNICEF. The state of the world’s children [Internet]. 2008. Available from: www.Unicef.org/sowc08/docs

Population Reference Bureau. The World’s Women and Girls 2012 Datasheet [Internet]. 2012 [cited 2015 Nov 12]. Available from: www.prb.org/pdf11/world-women-girls-320770-data-sheet.pdf

UNICEF. Child Survival [Internet]. New York; 2012. Available from: http://www.unicef.org/childsurvival

Makinson C. Sex differentials in infant and child mortality in Egypt. Ann Arbor. 1986;XIV:301.

Gyimah SO. Polygynous marital structure and child survivorship in sub-Saharan Africa: Some empirical evidence from Ghana. Soc Sci Med [Internet]. 2008;68(2):334–42. Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2008.09.067

Mullany LC, Katz J, Li YM, K SK, LeClerq SC, Darmstadt GL, et al. Breast-Feeding Patterns, Time to Initiation, and Mortality Risk among Newborns in Southern Nepal. J Nutr [Internet]. 2008;138(3):599–603. Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2366167/

Feeney G. Child survivorship estimation: methods and data analysis. Asian Pacific Popul Forum. 1991;5(2-3):51–5.

Doctor H, Bairagi R, Findley SE, Helleringer S. Northern Nigeria Maternal, Newborn and Child Health Programme : Selected Analyses from Population-Based Baseline Survey. Open Demogr J. 2011;4:11–21.

Ashir GM, Doctor H V, Afenyadu GY. Performance Based Financing and Uptake of Maternal and Child Health Services in Yobe Sate , Northern Nigeria. Glob J Heal Sci. 2013;5(3):34–41.

Cleland JG, Ginneken JK van. Maternal education and child survival in developing countries: The search for pathways of influence. Soc Sci Med [Internet]. 1988;27(12):Pp 1357–68. Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0277-9536(88)90201-8

Cleland J, Onuoha N, Timaeus I. Fertility change in sub-Saharan Africa: a review of evidence. In: Locoh T, Hertrich V (eds) The onset of fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa. Ordinal Ed Liège. 1994;1–20.

Kalbfleisch JD, Prentice RL. The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data. 2nd ed. New York: Wiley; 2002.

Brockerhoff M. The impact of rural-urban migration on child survival. Heal Transit Rev. 1994;4:127–49.

Fagbamigbe A, Olalere A. Differentials and Correlates of Infants Mortality in Nigeria : A Comparative Survival Analysis between North East and South West Nigeria. Int J Trop Dis Heal. 2014;4(8):869–86.

Downloads

Published

2016-10-24

How to Cite

Fagbamigbe, A. F., & Akinyemi, J. O. (2016). Modelling the survivorship pattern of Nigeria Children in their first 10 years of life. The Nigerian Health Journal, 16(1), 13. Retrieved from https://tnhjph.com/index.php/tnhj/article/view/194

Similar Articles

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 > >> 

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.